FAQs

How Can I Use This Service?

The service may be used to help inform your trading decisions for the selected indices, including the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000. Even if you don’t trade these indices, many stocks have a high correlation to at least one of them. Knowing where the market is quantitatively anticipated to move may help you to adjust your positions accordingly.

What Does The 'Daily Outlook' Represent?

'Daily Outlooks' represent statistical confidence intervals for the next session's market direction. Negative values represent down or short outlooks, whereas positive values represent long or invested outlooks. Lastly, Zero readings suggest no anticipated edge for the next trading session.

'Aggressive Outlooks' are scaled from zero to +/-200%, while 'Conservative Outlooks' range from zero to +/-100%. Larger magnitude outlooks represent progressively greater confidence levels in the indicated direction, with all readings rounded to the nearest 25%. For performance tracking purposes only, the service will use these readings as proxies for a maximum of either 2x or 1x index exposure levels, respectively.

Does The 'Daily Outlook' Represent The Exposure Level That I Should Trade?

No. The 'Daily Outlooks' should not be interpreted as either individual trading advice or as trade exposure level recommendations. While they will be used as such by the service for proxy tracking purposes, each trader is ultimately responsible for their own decisions regarding trade size, direction and exposure according to their personal risk tolerance, available capital and other factors.

When Are The 'Daily Outlooks' Posted?

Next-day preliminary consensus outlooks will be posted roughly ten minutes before each market close ("Pre-Close Outlook"). Final outlooks revealing individual participant entries will then typically be posted between 15 and 30 minutes after the close ("Final Outlook").

What If I Cannot Trade At The Close?

If this is the case, your results will differ from those reported, which are based on closing values. Large gaps at the open in the direction any given outlook will present the greatest difficulty. As such, you may consider either waiting to see the direction of the next open, using limit orders, or trading in the after-market.

What Is The 'Adaptive Consensus Outlook'?

The 'Adaptive Consensus Outlook' considers which wizards are currently outperforming on a risk-adjusted basis. Different contributor styles and methods will likely perform better in varying market environments -- the 'Adaptive Consensus Outlook' is designed to provide a superior result in all markets.

Will Every Participant Post An Outlook Each Day?

No. While, best efforts will be made on behalf of each participant, there can be no assurances made in that regard.

If Someone Doesn't Post, Won't the Consensus Outlook Be Incorrect?

No, we have built in adjustments for missing entries.

How Accurate Will the Predictions Be?

We can't make any assurances that the predictions will have any stated degree of accuracy. Maximizing accuracy is just one goal of this service, with risk-adjusted returns and consistency of performance taking precedence. Likewise, historical accuracy or performance may not be predictive of future performance.

How Is The Daily Scorecard Calculated?

'Return' for a given index is the close-to-close change of the proxy ETF. Quant Wizard returns are that day's 'Outlook' confidence percentages multiplied by the daily ETF return. The 'Difference' is each Quant Wizard return ('Conservative' & 'Aggressive') minus the subject ETF return.

Is Either A Free-Trial Period Or Refunds Available?

Inaugural subscribers will receive a free, no-risk, one-month beta evaluation trial (although you must still register through PayPal). During the evaluation period, members may cancel their subscription at any time before the end-of-month billing. After that period, we will let our track record speak for itself, with no trials or subscription refunds provided.

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